跨年行情有望徐徐展开｜券商晨会

Group 1 - CITIC Securities reports that a turning point in inventory has been observed since mid-November, with expectations for LME copper prices to accelerate towards $12,000 per ton by the end of the year due to interest rate cuts and domestic production reductions [1] - The report anticipates that the dual narrative of "U.S. copper hoarding" and "domestic production cuts" will resonate, potentially widening the supply gap by 60%, establishing $12,000 as a new starting point for copper prices [1] - A comprehensive recommendation for allocation in the copper sector is provided [1] Group 2 - Cinda Securities indicates that the foundation for a bull market remains solid, with the recent market volume contraction attributed to the digestion of high turnover rates and trading congestion in certain sectors, both of which have eased [2] - The report suggests that low trading volumes during a bull market are not a negative signal, as historical patterns show that volume lows often coincide with market bottoms [2] - The period around December 2025 is highlighted as a potential window for positioning ahead of a year-end market rally [2] Group 3 - Huaxi Securities expects an influx of new capital into the A-share market as the year ends, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a strong RMB supporting foreign investment in Chinese assets [3] - The report notes that the recent low trading volume and declining implied volatility in options indicate that the market is awaiting new guiding themes [3] - Recommended sectors for investment include high-growth areas supported by industrial policy, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI applications, as well as non-ferrous metals benefiting from improved overseas liquidity [3]