【央行圆桌汇】美联储即将迎来第六次降息时刻（2025年12月8日）

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The OECD predicts that developed economies will end the current rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to gradually lower the key interest rate to a range of 3.25% to 3.5% by the end of 2026 [1] - The latest inflation data has opened the door for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the core PCE price index rising 2.8% year-on-year in September [1] - The Reserve Bank of India has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, while the Polish central bank has also reduced its benchmark rate to 4.00% [3] Regulatory Developments - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman is committed to establishing new regulations for banks and stablecoins to ensure healthy competition among Wall Street, fintech companies, and cryptocurrency firms [2] - The European Central Bank has requested the Italian government to reconsider its proposal to declare the country's gold reserves as property of the Italian people, which may lead to the sale of some gold reserves [2] Market Observations - A Reuters survey indicates that 50 out of 100 economists expect the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 3.25%-3.50% in the first quarter of 2026, with 89 economists predicting a 25 basis point cut in December [4] - The Bank of England warns that the AI investment boom, driven by debt financing, poses a risk of market collapse, which could impact broader credit and debt markets [3] Upcoming Focus - Key central bank meetings and announcements are scheduled, including the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, where interest rate decisions and economic forecasts will be discussed [6]