【库存解读·LPG】库存走势分化 12月或先增后降

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic liquefied gas market in November showed a good production and sales rhythm, with a decrease in refinery storage capacity and an increase in port inventory due to higher import volumes [2][12] - The domestic liquefied gas refinery storage capacity was reported at 28.75% at the end of November, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month [12][13] - The estimated domestic liquefied gas commodity volume for November was 1.5958 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.75%, with an average daily commodity volume of 53,194 tons, down 2.27% [12][13] Group 2 - The demand for liquefied gas is characterized as stable but weak, with support from high costs and terminal demand due to lower temperatures, but lacking driving force for further increases [3][13] - The average storage capacity of imported gas at domestic main ports increased to 50.22% by November 20, up 0.86 percentage points from the previous month [4][14] - The total VLGC arrival volume at domestic main ports was approximately 2.8435 million tons in November, an increase of 154,300 tons compared to October [4][14] Group 3 - The market dynamics for liquefied gas in November were influenced by the interplay of supply, demand, and costs, leading to a mixed price trend [6][16] - The forecast for December suggests that the civil gas market will remain stable, with an average price expected around 4,300 yuan per ton, while the ether carbon four market may experience a rebound due to holiday demand [10][19] - The price range for civil gas in December is projected to be between 4,260 and 4,350 yuan per ton, while the ether carbon four is expected to range from 4,250 to 4,360 yuan per ton [10][19]