棕榈油：外强内弱格局延续，12月首周价格冲高

Core Viewpoint - In the first week of December, palm oil prices in China increased by 2.44% week-on-week due to concerns over production cuts and a shift in demand from India, despite a sluggish domestic market and ongoing inventory accumulation expectations [2][12]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 5, the domestic price of 24-degree palm oil was approximately 8,831 yuan per ton, with a weekly average of 8,777 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 209 yuan per ton [2][12]. - The price increase was driven by multiple favorable factors, including production concerns due to weather disturbances in producing regions [2][12]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - Malaysia's palm oil production in November decreased by 4.38% month-on-month, exceeding previous estimates of a 2.9% decline, which provided some support for prices [5][14]. - Despite the production decline, overall palm oil production remains relatively high, and a significant drop in exports (approximately 15%) is expected to lead to continued inventory accumulation [5][14]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Since October, the price gap between palm oil and soybean oil has widened, prompting Indian traders to increase palm oil imports by an estimated 4.6% to 630,000 tons in November [7][16]. - Indian refiners have canceled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil purchases originally scheduled for December to January, opting for more price-competitive palm oil instead, which is currently over $100 per ton cheaper than soybean oil [7][16]. Group 4: Market Outlook - As weather-related factors diminish, market focus is shifting back to fundamentals, with expectations that palm oil prices may continue to rise if production cuts are confirmed [9][18]. - The overall sentiment suggests that palm oil prices are likely to remain strong in December, with forecasts indicating a price range of 8,660 to 9,000 yuan per ton for 24-degree palm oil [9][18].