黄金基金ETF（518800）近20日资金净流入超22亿元，市场关注降息预期与长期配置价值

Core Viewpoint - Recent rise in gold prices is primarily driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts in December, with a long-term view of reshaping monetary credit patterns and an anticipated increase in the U.S. fiscal deficit following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - China's current gold reserves are relatively low, and the central bank's ongoing gold purchases are expected to be a long-term trend, leading to a sustained upward movement in gold prices [1] - The decline in real interest rates post-rate cuts is likely to attract inflows into gold ETFs, while the current high gold-silver ratio suggests a potential convergence as marginal demand expectations improve [1] - The valuation of the precious metals sector is at the lower end of its historical range, indicating potential for continued recovery and growth [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Investor Sentiment - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 12 consecutive months, which is expected to boost bullish sentiment in the gold market and alleviate previous concerns regarding high gold prices leading to a halt in central bank purchases [1] - The current pricing factors for gold indicate a preference for safety over yield, suggesting a shift in investor focus [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in gold during subsequent pullbacks and to gradually build positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETF (518800) as well as gold stock ETFs covering the entire gold industry chain (517400) are highlighted as potential investment avenues [1]