台海观澜 | 特朗普政府战略调整，赖清德当局战略冒进

Core Viewpoint - The release of the new National Security Strategy report by the Trump administration signifies a major shift in U.S. national security strategy, moving from a stance of overarching control to a more targeted approach [2] Group 1: U.S. National Security Strategy - The report emphasizes that U.S. foreign policy should focus on other countries only when their actions directly threaten U.S. interests, contrasting with the previous belief in permanent American dominance globally [2] - Taiwan is highlighted as a critical area of focus due to its dominance in semiconductor production and its strategic position providing access to the Second Island Chain, which separates Northeast and Southeast Asia [2] Group 2: Reactions in Taiwan - The response to the report in Taiwan is polarized, with the blue camp interpreting it more neutrally, while the green camp expresses strong support and gratitude for prioritizing deterrence against conflict in the Taiwan Strait [3] - Taiwan's leader, Lai Ching-te, expressed appreciation for the U.S. stance and reaffirmed Taiwan's commitment to self-defense and regional peace [3] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The report's strategic adjustments suggest a U.S. military drawdown, prompting Japan and Taiwan to increase their defense spending to fill the strategic void left by the U.S. [4] - Taiwan's government announced an additional defense budget of 1.25 trillion New Taiwan dollars, reflecting a shift towards a more aggressive defense posture [4] Group 4: Domestic Political Dynamics - The Lai Ching-te administration is increasing defense spending while simultaneously attempting to marginalize the opposition party, the Kuomintang, by labeling it as pro-China [5] - The administration is also taking measures to suppress mainland influence, including banning the social media app Xiaohongshu, which has 3 million users in Taiwan [4][5] Group 5: Future Outlook - If the Democratic Progressive Party continues to govern after the 2028 elections, the current trend of strategic assertiveness is likely to intensify [6] - The mainland is expected to prepare for potential countermeasures against Taiwan's independence movements [7]