前期贸易题材炒作降温 菜粕期价维持偏弱震荡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is experiencing a significant downturn, particularly in the rapeseed meal sector, which is showing weak performance and a downward trend in prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for rapeseed meal opened at 2374.00 CNY/ton and has shown low volatility, with a maximum of 2384.00 CNY and a minimum of 2322.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.55% [1]. - The overall market for rapeseed meal is characterized by weak fluctuations, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Reports of a soybean reserve auction in China have led to expectations of ample supply for soybean meal, which is suppressing the upward price potential for rapeseed meal [2]. - The recent arrival of rapeseed has cooled previous speculative trading, contributing to the price decline [2]. - The ongoing trade negotiations between China and Canada regarding canola seed tariffs have not yet reached a breakthrough, limiting imports of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, while oil mills remain inactive, tightening supply [2]. - A decline in demand for rapeseed meal is noted due to reduced requirements in aquaculture as temperatures drop, coupled with a relatively abundant supply of soybeans, which enhances the substitution advantage of soybean meal over rapeseed meal [2]. - The market for rapeseed meal is currently in a dual weakness scenario regarding both supply and demand, with short-term participation or observation recommended [2].