野村：料明年美国经济增2.4% 6月和9月有两次减息 美元全年贬值5%

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's macroeconomic research head, Rob Subbaraman, anticipates a 2.4% growth in the US economy next year, driven by increased AI investment and a more accommodative economic environment, while core inflation remains close to 3% [1] Economic Outlook - The US is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points this year, with no cuts anticipated from January to May next year, followed by two cuts in June and September [1] - Concerns are raised regarding the lack of significant fiscal consolidation in the US, with expectations of increased government spending on defense, aging society, climate change-related disasters, and interest payments, leading to greater fiscal pressure [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The increased fiscal pressure may compel the US government to push the Federal Reserve for more rate cuts or to encourage financial institutions to purchase more government bonds, potentially resulting in higher inflation in the long term [1] Market Predictions - Nomura predicts that Asian stock markets will perform better in 2026, attracting more capital inflows, and highlights Asia as a manufacturer of AI phenomena [1] - The global head of foreign exchange strategy at Nomura, Chen Liwei, forecasts that the US dollar will remain stable in the first quarter of next year, but the dollar index (DXY) is expected to depreciate by approximately 5% over the year, with downward pressure still present in the first quarter [1]