12月份棕榈油价格反弹走高的可能性较大

Core Viewpoint - Domestic palm oil prices have increased by 2.44% week-on-week in early December, driven by concerns over production cuts and shifting demand from India, with expectations of continued strong performance in palm oil prices as production cut forecasts materialize [1][7]. Group 1: Production Insights - Concerns over production cuts have been heightened due to weather disturbances affecting palm oil output, leading to price increases [1][7]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported a 4.38% month-on-month decline in crude palm oil production for November, exceeding previous estimates of a 2.9% drop, which supports price increases despite overall high production levels [3]. - November palm oil exports from Malaysia saw a significant decrease of approximately 15%, suggesting potential inventory accumulation despite production declines [3]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The price differential has led to increased demand for palm oil from India, with expected imports rising by 4.6% month-on-month to 630,000 tons in November [5]. - Indian refiners have canceled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil purchases scheduled for December to January due to rising global soybean oil prices, opting for more competitively priced palm oil instead [5]. - Currently, palm oil prices in India are over $100 per ton lower than soybean oil, enhancing the attractiveness of palm oil imports [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - As weather-related factors diminish, market focus is shifting back to the fundamentals of palm oil, with close attention on high-frequency production and sales data from major producing countries and the upcoming MPOB report [7]. - If production cuts are confirmed to be more significant than anticipated, this could further support price increases [7]. - The domestic market is experiencing a subdued trading atmosphere, with some regions facing pressure to expedite transactions, which may limit upward price movement [7]. - Overall, the likelihood of a price rebound in December is high, with expectations for 24-degree palm oil prices to range between 8,660 and 9,000 yuan per ton [7].