降温持续美国气价上涨、库存提取欧洲气价下行

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the ongoing fluctuations in natural gas prices due to weather conditions and inventory changes, with U.S. gas prices rising while European prices are declining [1] Price Tracking - As of December 5, 2025, U.S. HH gas prices increased by 13.2% week-on-week, while European TTF prices decreased by 6.2%. The prices for East Asia JKM, China LNG ex-factory, and China LNG CIF also saw slight declines of 1.9%, 1.4%, and 6.5% respectively [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - U.S. natural gas storage decreased by 120 billion cubic feet to 39,230 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year decline of 0.4% [2] - European gas prices fell by 6.2% due to inventory extraction, with a total consumption of 2,884 billion cubic meters in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2] - European gas supply decreased by 9.9% week-on-week to 92,490 GWh, with significant contributions from inventory consumption and LNG receiving stations [2] - Domestic gas prices in China decreased by 1.4% week-on-week, with a total apparent consumption of 3,541 billion cubic meters in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [2] Pricing Progress - As of November 2025, 67% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [3] Investment Recommendations - For 2025, the industry is expected to experience relaxed supply and cost optimization for gas companies, with a focus on pricing mechanisms and demand growth. Key recommendations include: - New Hope Energy with a dividend yield of 4.4% and potential valuation recovery [4] - China Gas with a dividend yield of 6.0% and Kunlun Energy with a yield of 4.7% [4] - Attention to companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and New Hope Holdings [4] - Focus on companies with gas production capabilities like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings due to increasing uncertainties in U.S. gas imports [4]