年内最后一个超级央行周！美联储或降息、重启购债双管齐下

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut and a bond-buying program during its upcoming meeting, with an 88% probability of a rate cut according to Fed Watch data [3][4] - Recent economic data has been mixed, and the upcoming JOLTS report will be a key focus for investors ahead of the Fed meeting [3] - The Fed's balance sheet, which peaked at nearly $9 trillion in 2022, has shrunk by approximately $2.4 trillion due to quantitative tightening, leading to liquidity concerns in the repo market [5] Group 2: Other Central Banks' Decisions - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its interest rate at 2.25%, citing that the current rate is appropriate given economic conditions [6] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep its cash rate at 3.6% but may signal a shift towards a more hawkish stance in future meetings [6] - The Swiss National Bank is anticipated to maintain its interest rate at zero, acknowledging a weaker inflation outlook due to a stronger franc [7] Group 3: Japan's Central Bank and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Ueda Kazuo, is set to speak ahead of the December rate decision, with market expectations for a rate hike at about 90% [8][9] - Japan's GDP contracted by 2.3% in the third quarter, which complicates the central bank's policy decisions, although inflation remains above the 2% target [8] - Rising Japanese bond yields have implications for global markets, as higher yields may lead to a sell-off of overseas assets by Japanese investors [9]