11月出口超预期反弹，同比增幅较上月回升7个百分点

Core Viewpoint - China's exports to the US continued to decline in November, with a significant increase in the rate of decline, while exports to Europe surged, indicating a shift in trade dynamics due to tariffs and economic fluctuations [1][4]. Export Performance - In November, China's exports showed a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, rebounding by 7 percentage points compared to a 1.1% decline in the previous month [2]. - The increase in exports was attributed to a lower base from the previous year, a global trade recovery, and significant growth in exports of chips and automobiles, which rose by 34.2% and 53.0% respectively [3][2]. Trade with the US - Exports to the US fell by 28.6% year-on-year in November, a decline that expanded from 25.2% the previous month, amounting to approximately $33.79 billion [4]. - The share of exports to the US in total exports decreased to 10.2%, down from 11.4% in the previous month [4]. - Despite a reduction in tariffs on certain goods, the overall export decline to the US is expected to continue, although the rate may narrow in the future [4][7]. Trade with Europe and Other Regions - Exports to Europe increased by approximately 14.8% year-on-year, a significant rise from 0.9% in the previous month, driven by increased investments in the European market by Chinese manufacturers [5][6]. - Exports to Japan and South Korea also saw increases of 4.3% and 1.9% respectively, while exports to ASEAN countries grew by 8.2% [6]. Overall Trade Resilience - Despite external economic pressures, China's export sector demonstrated resilience, primarily due to the flexibility of private enterprises and a shift towards markets outside the US [7]. - The export growth to "Belt and Road" economies accounted for over half of China's total exports, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.5% in the first eleven months of the year [7]. Future Outlook - The export growth rate is expected to slow down in December, potentially approaching zero, influenced by high base effects and global trade fluctuations [7][8]. - Domestic policies aimed at boosting internal demand may provide some support for import growth, although overall import momentum is anticipated to weaken [9].