时隔6个季度，日本经济再陷萎缩

Economic Contraction - Japan's real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate contracted by 2.3% in Q3, worse than the initial estimate of a 1.8% decline and exceeding market expectations of a 2% contraction [1] - The economy has entered a contraction phase for the first time since Q1 2024, marking the fastest contraction since Q3 2023 [1] Private Consumption and Capital Expenditure - Real GDP, adjusted for inflation, shrank by 0.6% from July to September, more severe than the preliminary estimate of a 0.4% decline [2] - Private consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, slightly increased by 0.2%, surpassing the initial estimate of 0.1% [2] - Capital expenditure, a key indicator of private demand, decreased by 0.2%, contrasting sharply with the initial growth estimate of 1.0% [3] External Demand and Economic Stimulus - External demand (exports minus imports) reduced GDP by 0.2 percentage points, consistent with preliminary data [4] - The Japanese government has approved a comprehensive economic stimulus package worth approximately 21.3 trillion yen, with a significant portion allocated for direct financial support measures aimed at alleviating living costs [4] Inflation and Currency Concerns - Over 20,000 food items in Japan have seen price increases, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising for 49 consecutive months [4] - The depreciation of the yen has raised import costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures, leading to concerns about fiscal sustainability [5][6] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is considering a policy shift, with market expectations for a potential interest rate hike increasing significantly [7] - The central bank's governor has indicated that any policy adjustments will be gradual to avoid economic shocks [8] - If interest rates are raised, it could significantly increase government borrowing costs, with Japan's government debt projected to reach 229.6% of GDP by 2025, the highest among developed economies [9]