年内最后一个超级央行周，美联储或降息、重启购债双管齐下

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates and restart its bond-buying program in December, with an 88% probability of a rate cut according to Fed Watch data [2] - Recent statements from key Federal Reserve officials have increased market expectations for a rate cut, with economists predicting further cuts in March and September 2026 [2][4] - The Fed's balance sheet, which peaked at nearly $9 trillion in 2022, has shrunk by approximately $2.4 trillion due to quantitative tightening, leading to liquidity concerns in the repo market [4] Group 2: Other Central Banks - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its interest rate at 2.25%, citing that current levels are appropriate given economic and inflation forecasts [6] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep rates unchanged at 3.6% but may signal a shift towards a more hawkish stance, considering rising inflation risks [7] - The Swiss National Bank is anticipated to maintain its interest rate at zero, acknowledging a weaker inflation outlook due to a stronger franc [7] Group 3: Japan's Economic Situation - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, is set to speak ahead of the central bank's final rate decision of the year, with market expectations for a rate hike at around 90% [10] - Japan's GDP contracted by 2.3% in the third quarter, which complicates the central bank's policy decisions, although inflation remains above the 2% target [10][11] - The potential for a rate hike in Japan could have significant implications for global bond markets, as rising Japanese bond yields may lead to increased selling of foreign assets [11][12]