Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-08 09:37Core Viewpoint - Both JD Health (06618) and Alibaba Health (00241) reported strong performance in Q3 this year, but due to the base effect of the trade-in policy, their Q4 performance guidance is considered conservative. However, there is a positive outlook for drug sales growth and profit margin expansion in the coming year [5]. Group 1: Company Performance - JD Health and Alibaba Health are expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth next year, with JD Health anticipated to grow at a faster rate [5]. - JD Health's target price is set at HKD 71, while Alibaba Health's target price has been lowered from HKD 6.5 to HKD 6, reflecting a slowdown in third-party goods transaction volume and revenue growth expectations [5]. - Both companies maintain an "outperform" rating [5]. Group 2: Market Trends - The trend of original drug sales shifting from hospital channels to external channels, along with pharmaceutical marketing budgets moving online, is expected to continue for several years [5]. - Revenue growth rates for both companies in the next quarter are projected to be around 15% year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Future Projections - JD Health is expected to achieve nearly 20% year-on-year revenue growth in the fiscal year 2026, while Alibaba Health is projected to achieve low teens year-on-year revenue growth in the fiscal year 2027 [5]. - Due to the high base effect of the trade-in policy, sales of medical devices may slow down, and Alibaba Health may face greater pressure in nutrition products, third-party goods transaction volume (GMV), and revenue [5]. - The long-term adjusted net profit margin for both companies is approximately 13% [5].