智通财经网·2025-12-08 09:45Core Viewpoint - Both JD Health (06618) and Alibaba Health (00241) reported strong performance in Q3 this year, but the fourth quarter guidance is considered conservative due to the base effect of the trade-in policy. The outlook for drug sales growth and profit margin expansion for next year remains positive [1] Group 1: Company Performance - JD Health and Alibaba Health are expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth next year, with JD Health anticipated to grow at a faster rate [1] - JD Health's target price is set at HKD 71, while Alibaba Health's target price has been lowered from HKD 6.5 to HKD 6 to reflect a slowdown in third-party product transaction volume and revenue growth expectations [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The trend of original drug sales shifting from hospital channels to external channels, along with pharmaceutical marketing budgets moving online, is expected to continue for several years [1] - Both companies are projected to have a revenue year-on-year growth rate of around 15% in the next quarter, supported by ongoing growth in original drug sales [1] Group 3: Long-term Projections - JD Health is expected to achieve nearly 20% year-on-year revenue growth in the fiscal year 2026, while Alibaba Health is projected to achieve low teens year-on-year revenue growth in the fiscal year 2027 [1] - Due to the high base effect from the trade-in policy, medical device sales may slow down, and Alibaba Health may face greater pressure in nutrition products, third-party GMV, and revenue [1] - The long-term adjusted net profit margin for both companies is approximately 13% [1]