邦达亚洲:美联储降息预期持续升温 美元指数微幅收跌

Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index for December rose from 51 in November to 53.3, exceeding the median forecast of 52 by economists [1] - The overall expectations index increased to 55, marking a four-month high, while the current conditions index fell to a historical low of 50.7, below the expected 52.1 [1] - There is a significant confidence gap between Democratic and Republican respondents, with Democrats expressing heightened concerns about the current economic situation [1] Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation expectation for December is at 4.1%, the lowest level since January, compared to an expectation of 4.5% [1] - The five-year inflation expectation is at 3.2%, slightly below the expected 3.4% [1] Group 3: PCE Inflation Data - The PCE price index for September increased by 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations, and rose by 2.8% year-over-year, also in line with forecasts [2][7] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, consistent with Bloomberg's and Dow Jones' expectations [2][8] - The SuperCore PCE, which reflects more stable inflation trends, slightly decreased to 3.25% due to stagnation in financial services and accommodation sectors [8] Group 4: Currency Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced slight declines, trading around 98.90, influenced by expectations of a Fed rate cut in December [3][9] - The euro traded around 1.1650, facing pressure from profit-taking and cautious market behavior ahead of the Fed's rate decision [4][10] - The British pound saw a minor increase, trading at approximately 1.3340, supported by the Fed's rate cut expectations, although concerns about the Bank of England's potential rate cuts limited its upward movement [5][11]