中国11月大豆进口创四年新高，全年进口量或将破纪录

Core Insights - China's soybean imports reached 8.11 million tons in November, marking a 13.4% increase from 7.15 million tons in the same month last year, and the highest level for the same period in four years [1] - Despite a 14.5% month-on-month decline from October's 9.48 million tons, the cumulative import total for the first 11 months of the year increased by 6.9% year-on-year, reaching 13.79 million tons, setting a solid foundation for a potential record annual import volume [1] - Analysts predict that total soybean imports for the year could reach a record 110 million tons, driven by significant purchases of Brazilian and U.S. soybeans [1][4] Import Dynamics - The import landscape has been influenced by changes in international trade relations, particularly the U.S.-China trade tensions that previously halted U.S. soybean purchases for several months [4] - Following a trade truce agreement between the U.S. and China at the end of October, China has gradually resumed purchasing U.S. soybeans, with COFCO leading the way by pre-purchasing approximately 2.7 million tons [4] - This volume is still below the U.S. government's target of 12 million tons by the end of the year, although there are indications that the deadline may be extended to February next year [4] Demand Drivers - The continuous growth in China's soybean imports is driven by multiple factors, including the strong demand from the domestic pig farming industry for soybean meal and other feed proteins [4] - The stabilization of domestic pig production capacity has maintained high demand for quality feed ingredients [4] - The relative price advantage of international soybeans, particularly from Brazil, has also stimulated purchasing interest among importers [4] Future Outlook - Industry analysts generally expect China's soybean import levels to remain high, supported by ongoing consumption upgrades and the modernization of the livestock industry [5] - Adjustments in the global soybean supply chain and China's diversified import strategies to ensure food security will also contribute to stable growth in soybean import volumes [5]