Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a strong economic growth effect from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) passed by the Trump administration in 2025, starting in 2026, leading to a "Goldilocks" macroeconomic environment in the U.S. with moderate growth and inflation [1][8]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. stock market has transitioned from a three-year "rolling recession" to a "rolling recovery," characterized by improved cost structures, strong earnings revisions, and released pent-up demand, creating a typical early-cycle environment [2]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to initiate a new capital expenditure cycle, with corporate investments, particularly in AI and manufacturing, becoming new growth engines [2]. Market Dynamics - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Nvidia and Google, will continue to lead earnings revisions in 2025, with expectations spreading to the S&P 493 constituents, particularly in industrial and financial sectors [6]. - Morgan Stanley defines the current situation as a "second phase bull market under rolling recovery," emphasizing a return of market risk appetite and broadening investment opportunities across various sectors [6][15]. Investment Strategy - Morgan Stanley recommends an "overweight" position in cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary goods, while suggesting a "low weight" in staples and real estate [13][14]. - The firm anticipates that the S&P 500 index could reach 9,000 points by 2026, driven by strong corporate earnings growth and AI-related capital expenditures [11]. Broader Market Trends - The market is expected to shift focus from defensive to offensive strategies, with AI remaining a key investment theme but not the sole driver of the upcoming bull market [9]. - The anticipated "risk reboot year" in 2026 will see a significant focus on microeconomic factors, with a unique combination of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies providing a strong boost to risk markets [11][14].
美股从AI一枝独秀到“周期群舞”! 大摩押注2026年踏向滚动式复苏 周期股领衔第二阶段牛市
智通财经网·2025-12-08 10:30