欧洲央行放鹰与财政扩张共振 德债收益率触及九个月高位

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is signaling a potential end to its rate-cutting cycle, with a senior committee member expressing acceptance of market expectations for a rate hike, leading to an increase in German bond yields to their highest levels since March [1] Group 1: ECB and Interest Rates - A senior member of the ECB's executive committee, Isabel Schnabel, has indicated satisfaction with investors betting on the next rate hike, suggesting that the ECB's rate-cutting cycle has reached its bottom after a cumulative reduction of 2 percentage points [1] - Following Schnabel's hawkish comments, the yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds rose by 3 basis points to 2.83%, approaching the significant 3% level [1] Group 2: German Bond Market Dynamics - The long-term German bond yields are nearing critical levels, with the 20-year bonds at their highest since 2011, while U.S. and U.K. yields remain closer to their yearly lows [2] - Concerns about a significant increase in long-term bond issuance due to a recently approved budget plan, which includes €98 billion (approximately $114 billion) in net new federal borrowing, are causing worries about rising "term premiums" [2] - Analysts predict that Germany's cyclically adjusted budget deficit will continue to expand significantly, with expectations that German bond yields will rise to 3% or higher in the coming quarters [2]