【环球财经】2026年大宗商品展望：全球秩序面临重构 有色金属和贵金属或延续涨势

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is showing a mixed performance characterized by rising safe-haven assets, differentiated trends in industrial metals, and pressure on energy and agricultural products [1] Precious Metals - Precious metals have benefited from a return of cyclical demand, with gold prices up over 50% and silver prices up over 70% year-to-date [2] - The average price of gold jewelry in Shanghai reached 1320 yuan per gram on December 8, a 65% increase from 799 yuan per gram at the beginning of the year [2] - Central banks in emerging markets have accelerated gold purchases, contributing to structural support for gold prices, while cyclical demand from ETFs has driven recent price increases [2] - Analysts expect continued investment demand for precious metals in 2026, with gold prices potentially reaching $5000 per ounce due to ongoing macroeconomic factors [4][5] Silver Market - The silver market is expected to benefit from both industrial and financial demand, with analysts predicting a price range of $50 to $60 per ounce in 2026 [6] - The gold-silver ratio has increased to the 85-90 range, indicating a strong demand for silver, which may continue to outperform gold [6] - Silver's strategic resource attributes are becoming more pronounced, with supply constraints expected to intensify [6] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have reached historical highs, with LME copper futures hitting $11,771 per ton, a year-to-date increase of over 30% [7] - The rise in copper prices is driven by structural imbalances in global supply and inventory, alongside expectations of increased demand from the AI sector [7] - Analysts predict that copper prices will remain strong, with forecasts suggesting an average price of $11,750 per ton in 2026 [8] - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise due to supply constraints, with projections indicating that LME aluminum prices may exceed $3200 per ton in 2026 [10]