突然,崩了!刚刚,紧急“救市”
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-12-08 12:11

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is intervening in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the Indian Rupee, which has recently depreciated significantly against the US Dollar, surpassing the psychological threshold of 90 [1][2]. Group 1: RBI Intervention Strategy - The RBI is attempting to balance between curbing speculation and avoiding excessive intervention, with decisions made daily at their headquarters in Mumbai [2][6]. - Traders are instructed to sell up to $100 million per minute to alleviate the depreciation pressure on the Rupee [2][4]. - Since June, the RBI's intervention has led to a significant reduction in foreign currency assets, amounting to approximately $38 billion [1][5]. Group 2: Market Impact and Analysis - The Indian Rupee has depreciated by nearly 4.5% this year, making it one of the worst-performing currencies among 31 major currencies, second only to the Turkish Lira and Argentine Peso [2][7]. - The RBI's actions have resulted in a liquidity drain from the banking system, prompting the central bank to announce a liquidity injection of approximately $16 billion [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the RBI's capacity for further intervention may be limited due to liquidity issues and reserve balances, with net dollar short positions reaching about $64 billion [7][8]. Group 3: Trade Relations and Future Outlook - The ongoing trade negotiations between India and the US are critical for the future trajectory of the Indian Rupee [8][9]. - If a favorable trade agreement is reached, the RBI may find relief in its efforts to stabilize the currency [9][10]. - Foreign investors have sold approximately $17 billion worth of Indian stocks this year, indicating significant capital outflows [10].