日元融资成本上升：比特币的短期调整压力与中长期增长潜力

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the paradox between the expectation of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and the prevailing bearish sentiment towards the Japanese yen, highlighting a significant divergence in market behavior despite high probabilities of a rate increase [1][12]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Despite a 91% probability of a rate hike in December, investors are heavily betting on a weaker yen against the dollar, as indicated by positioning data from major institutions like Bank of America and Nomura [1][12]. - The "pain index" for the yen remains in negative territory, reflecting persistent pessimism in the market regarding the yen's short-term outlook [1][12]. - The divergence in sentiment is attributed to liquidity tightening effects and a structural shift in market sentiment, with significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and a notable reduction in holdings by long-term Bitcoin holders [12][16]. Group 2: Implications of Yen Depreciation - Further depreciation of the yen could increase Japan's import costs, exacerbating domestic inflation and potentially disrupting economic stimulus plans led by Prime Minister Kishida [3][15]. - The Japanese Finance Minister's attempts to intervene in the currency market have had limited effectiveness, indicating widespread skepticism about the efficacy of such policies [3][15]. Group 3: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - The relationship between yen policies and the Bitcoin market is indirect, primarily through global liquidity adjustments and shifts in market risk appetite [4][15]. - A potential increase in yen financing costs due to rate hikes could lead to a sell-off in Bitcoin as investors close out arbitrage positions, resulting in short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin prices [4][15]. - Historical data shows that after the Bank of Japan exited its negative interest rate policy in 2024, Bitcoin experienced a 12% drop in the same month, followed by a rebound over the next six months, illustrating a "short-term pullback, long-term recovery" pattern [4][15]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Bitcoin - If the yen strengthens amid global macro uncertainties, Bitcoin's status as a "super-sovereign asset" may be further reinforced, as evidenced by a decrease in correlation with U.S. stocks post-October 2025 [6][16]. - The potential for Japanese institutional funds to flow into the Bitcoin market is supported by ongoing regulatory improvements in Japan's Web3 sector, including stablecoin legislation and tax reforms [8][16]. Group 5: Future Scenarios - If the Bank of Japan raises rates in December, Bitcoin prices may temporarily drop below $85,000 due to concentrated profit-taking, but could recover to the $100,000 mark if global liquidity conditions improve [9][17]. - Conversely, if the Bank of Japan maintains its current policy, the ongoing yen arbitrage trades may provide short-term liquidity support for Bitcoin, but uncertainty could lead to increased price volatility [10][18]. Group 6: Conclusion - The paradox of rising interest rate expectations and bearish sentiment towards the yen reflects the complexities of global liquidity restructuring [19]. - While Bitcoin may face short-term challenges from yen-related arbitrage, its long-term appeal as a super-sovereign asset and potential inflows from compliant Japanese funds could provide substantial support [19].