100万亿Token揭示今年AI趋势！硅谷的这份报告火了

Core Insights - The report titled "State of AI: An Empirical 100 Trillion Token Study with OpenRouter" analyzes the usage of over 300 AI models on the OpenRouter platform from November 2024 to November 2025, focusing on real token consumption rather than benchmark scores [3][5][67] - It highlights the significant rise of open-source models, particularly from China, which saw weekly token usage share increase from 1.2% to 30%, indicating a shift towards a complementary relationship between open-source and closed-source models [2][10][74] - The report emphasizes the transition of AI models from language generation systems to reasoning and execution systems, with reasoning models becoming the new paradigm [18][83] Open-Source vs Closed-Source Models - Open-source models are no longer seen merely as alternatives to closed-source models; they have carved out unique positions and are often preferred in specific scenarios [6][70] - By the end of 2025, it is expected that open-source models will account for approximately one-third of total usage, reflecting a more integrated approach by developers who utilize both types of models [5][70] - The dominance of DeepSeek is diminishing as more open-source models enter the market, leading to a diversified landscape where no single model is expected to exceed 25% of token usage by the end of 2025 [13][77] Model Characteristics and Trends - The report identifies a shift towards medium-sized models, which are gaining market favor, while small models are losing traction [16][80] - The classification of models is as follows: large models (700 billion parameters or more), medium models (150 to 700 billion parameters), and small models (less than 150 billion parameters) [20][85] - The usage of reasoning tokens has surpassed 50%, indicating a significant evolution in how AI models are utilized for complex tasks [18][83] User Behavior and Model Utilization - AI model usage has evolved from simple tasks to more complex problem-solving, with user prompts increasing in length and complexity [27][92] - The concept of "crystal shoe effect" is introduced, where certain models lock in a core user base due to their unique capabilities, making it difficult for competitors to attract these users later [55][120] - Programming and role-playing have emerged as the primary use cases for AI models, with programming queries rising from 11% to over 50% [27][100] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the paid usage share of AI in Asia has doubled from 13% to 31%, while North America's share has fallen below 50% [129] - English remains the dominant language in AI usage at 82%, with Simplified Chinese holding nearly 5% [129] - The impact of model pricing on usage is less significant than anticipated, with a 10% price drop leading to only a 0.5%-0.7% increase in usage [129]