东海研究 | 资产配置：美元降息与日元加息预期，资产再平衡下寻找确定性

Group 1: Global Asset Overview - Global stock markets mostly rose in the week of December 5, with A-shares performing relatively well [10] - Major commodity futures saw copper, crude oil, and aluminum prices increase, while gold prices declined [10] - The US dollar index fell slightly, leading to appreciation in non-US currencies [10] Group 2: Domestic Equity Market - In the week of December 5, the average daily trading volume was 16,843 billion yuan, down from 17,254 billion yuan [14] - Among the 31 primary industries, 17 rose while 14 fell, with the top gainers being non-ferrous metals (+5.35%), communications (+3.69%), and defense industry (+2.82%) [14] - The sectors with the largest declines included media (-3.86%), real estate (-2.15%), and beauty care (-2.00%) [14] Group 3: Interest Rates and Currency - Short-term liquidity turned ample at the beginning of the month, with the central bank increasing short-term reverse repos [17] - The sentiment in the bond market turned cautious, leading to a general rise in yields, particularly in long-term bonds [18] - The US dollar index fell, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.03% against the dollar [10][24] Group 4: Economic Data and Market Expectations - The upcoming week will focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with a nearly 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [9] - Key economic data to be released includes US job vacancies, UK GDP, and China's inflation data [9] - The market anticipates further rate cuts in 2026, with the potential for two to three additional cuts next year [7] Group 5: Commodity Tracking - As of December 5, WTI crude oil prices rose by 2.6% to $60.08 per barrel, with US crude production increasing by 302,000 barrels per day year-on-year [25] - Gold prices fell by 0.5% to $4,197.41 per ounce, with expectations of a Fed rate cut influencing market sentiment [31] - Copper prices increased by 3.6% week-on-week, with SHFE copper averaging 89,808 yuan per ton [37]