奥本海默策略师斯托尔茨弗斯连续三年蝉联美股最大多头

Core Viewpoint - Oppenheimer Asset Management's John Stoltzfus predicts an 18% increase in the S&P 500 index next year, making him the most optimistic analyst tracked by Bloomberg for the third consecutive year [1][3] - Stoltzfus expects the index to reach around 8100 points by the end of 2026, supported by strong economic growth and loose monetary policy [1][3] Market Sentiment - The U.S. stock market is experiencing its third consecutive year of double-digit gains, driven by investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates despite resilient economic growth [1][3] - Concerns regarding global trade wars and potential tech bubbles have not persisted for long in the market [1][3] Asset Management Outlook - A Bloomberg informal survey indicates that over three-quarters of asset managers are positioning for a risk-on market environment in 2026 [2][4] - Stoltzfus favors cyclical sectors closely tied to economic performance over safer defensive sectors, with preferred sectors including information technology, communication services, industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary [2][4] Analyst Consensus - Other financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, also predict that U.S. stock market gains will exceed 10% [1][3]