Donald Trump promised tax-free Social Security for seniors. So what’s the holdup?

Core Insights - The number of seniors contributing to Social Security is increasing due to stagnant income thresholds since 1993, despite annual cost-of-living adjustments for benefits [1] - Eliminating taxes on Social Security could harm the program's financial stability, as it would significantly reduce government revenue and deplete trust funds [2][10] - Current tax deductions for seniors are limited and phased out for higher-income individuals, with a temporary $6,000 deduction introduced until 2028 [3][17] Taxation and Benefits - Social Security benefits are taxed for individuals with a combined income exceeding $25,000 and $32,000 for joint filers, which is considered low [4] - The share of Social Security benefits taxed at the federal level increased from 2.2% in 1994 to 6.6% in 2022, indicating a growing reliance on this revenue stream [5] - Approximately 50% of Social Security recipients currently pay federal taxes on their benefits, with projections suggesting this could rise to over 56% by 2050 [6] Financial Implications - Eliminating taxes on Social Security could lead to a $1.5 trillion reduction in government revenue over ten years and hasten the depletion of trust funds [10] - The depletion of Social Security trust funds is projected to occur by late 2032, with potential benefit cuts of 23% expected once funds run out [11][16] - Trump's promise to eliminate taxes on benefits could exacerbate cuts to 33% of benefits, highlighting the financial risks associated with such policy changes [16] Legislative Context - Lawmakers have not raised combined income thresholds for taxation on benefits, aiming to ensure a stable revenue stream for the program [7] - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduced a temporary tax deduction rather than eliminating taxes, reflecting the challenges in enacting significant changes to Social Security [17]