Dollar General Shows Discount Retail Is Thriving In Tough Economy

Core Insights - Dollar General Corp. reported strong third-quarter earnings, exceeding expectations and raising its full-year outlook, indicating improved profitability and steady demand from budget-conscious consumers [1][2][3] Third-Quarter Results - Adjusted EPS was $1.28, surpassing the estimate of $0.91 and the FactSet consensus of $0.95 [2] - Operating margin increased by 82 basis points to 4.0%, while gross margin rose by 107 basis points to 29.9%, supported by lower shrinkage and higher markups [3] - EBIT dollars increased by 31.5% to $426 million despite a 25 basis point deleverage in SG&A to 25.9% due to various costs [3] Sales and Traffic Momentum - Sales grew by 4.6% to $10.7 billion, with comparable store sales (comps) increasing by 2.5%, driven entirely by a 2.5% rise in traffic [4] - The average ticket remained stable, as higher unit retail prices offset a decrease in items per basket [4] Guidance and Financial Levers - Dollar General raised its 2025 EPS guidance to a range of $6.30–$6.50, up from $5.80–$6.30, and increased sales growth guidance to 4.7%–4.9% [7] - The company plans to pay down $550 million of 2027 debt, which is expected to lower interest expenses and add approximately 9 cents to EPS [7] - There are 4,885 planned real estate projects for 2025 and an expansion of delivery services across various platforms [7] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman raised the 12-month price target for Dollar General to $130 from $123, maintaining a Market Perform rating [1][8] - Other analysts also raised their forecasts, with Jefferies increasing its target to $142 and UBS to $143 [9] Stock Performance - Dollar General shares were down 0.21% at $132.09 during premarket trading, close to its 52-week high of $135.08 [10]