NCE平台:12月或成比特币反转窗口

Core Viewpoint - The recent deep correction in Bitcoin has led to a rapid decline in market sentiment, but the NCE platform believes this sentiment-driven market is significantly diverging from the fundamentals, presenting a potential reversal opportunity in December [1][4]. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - K33 Research indicates that despite the accelerating fear in the market, key technical levels, leverage structure, and capital positioning suggest that prices are nearing a cyclical bottom rather than the beginning of a new significant downturn [1][4]. - Bitcoin's price dropped to approximately $90,680, marking the largest correction since the last bear market, with spot Bitcoin ETFs shifting from long-term net buying to a phase of net selling in November, which has been a key factor suppressing prices [1][4]. - CME futures trading volume has fallen to multi-year lows, and traditional institutions are exhibiting caution, with Bitcoin's relative weakness to stock assets causing its ratio to Nasdaq to reach the lowest level since the end of 2024 [1][4]. Risk Perception and Future Outlook - K33 Research emphasizes that the market is overreacting to long-term risks while overlooking strong near-term signals, suggesting a higher likelihood of significant upward movement in the coming weeks rather than an 80% crash [5]. - Key supporting points include Bitcoin operating within a historical strong support range of $70,000 to $80,000, cautious overall positioning in the futures market, and the absence of large-scale liquidations in perpetual contracts [5]. - Long-term concerns such as quantum computing risks and potential large institutional sell-offs are being exaggerated in the current market, but K33 Research believes these risks are not imminent and do not constitute short-term pricing logic [5]. Structural Changes and Investment Opportunities - Notable forward-looking changes in policy and market structure, including potential easing of retirement account allocation, more mature financial infrastructure, and a more open institutional participation environment, are gradually enhancing Bitcoin's long-term appeal [6]. - Research indicates that the cautious positioning in the futures market provides ample room for potential upward movement, and if ETF participants shift from net selling to net inflows, trend momentum could quickly recover [6]. - Overall, despite the market remaining cautious, various dimensions such as support levels, leverage structure, trading behavior, and policy expectations suggest that December could serve as a cyclical reversal window [6].