Trump Trade War: How Tariffs Reshaped U.S. Business and Global Trade

Supply Chain Realignment - The share of U.S. supplier volume from China, Hong Kong, and Korea has decreased from 90% to 50% over the past decade, with this shift accelerating since the first wave of tariffs in 2018 [1] - Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and India have emerged as significant beneficiaries, managing a growing share of U.S.-bound production, with supplier diversification now evenly split between North Asia and South Asia [2] Trade Dynamics - U.S. imports from China have declined by 26% year-over-year, while trade between China and Indonesia has increased by 29.2%, Vietnam by 23%, and India by 19.4% [3] - U.S. imports from Vietnam have also grown, increasing by 23% this year [3] Tariff Impact on U.S. Companies - U.S. companies are facing significant pressure from tariffs, with many firms that frontloaded inventory in early 2025 now running low, leading to rising costs and tighter cash flow [4] - The average tariff has risen from 1.5% to double digits, particularly affecting sectors like retail and generic pharmaceuticals due to their thin margins [5] Financing Needs and Trends - Over 70% of U.S. businesses surveyed reported increased cash needs compared to last year, with financing tools like HSBC's Trade Pay platform seeing a 20% increase in activity since the new tariffs were implemented in April [6] - As inventory buffers deplete, the demand for working capital is expected to continue growing [6]