FXGT:比特币市场压力再现

Core Insights - Recent on-chain data indicates that several metrics are approaching levels seen at the beginning of the bear market in early 2022, with significant pressure on top buyers and a rapid increase in the supply of Bitcoin at a loss [1][3] - The current Bitcoin trading environment is characterized as high-risk, necessitating heightened vigilance from investors [1] On-Chain Market Analysis - As of mid-November, Bitcoin's spot price has fallen to approximately $96,100, which is around the 0.75 percentile of the cost basis for top buyers, resulting in over 25% of Bitcoin supply being at a loss [1][3] - The conditions mirror those at the onset of the bear market in early 2022, suggesting that pressure on top buyers may lead to short-term sell-offs and increased market volatility [1] Off-Chain Market Dynamics - There are signs of weakening demand in the off-chain market, with a notable decline in investor risk appetite [2][4] - ETF fund flows have experienced a continuous outflow for six weeks, totaling over $2.7 billion, marking the longest negative outflow period since the launch of related ETF products in January 2024 [2][4] - Spot trading volumes are also declining, with Binance's cumulative volume difference remaining negative, and Coinbase's premium, although briefly positive, is expected to revert to negative territory [2][4] Investor Sentiment and Market Behavior - Market participants are exhibiting a cautious stance in the options market, favoring selling call options rather than buying into potential price increases, indicating limited expectations for significant short-term gains [5] - Despite the pressures indicated by both on-chain and off-chain data, capital continues to flow into Bitcoin, with a monthly average inflow of approximately $8.69 billion, although this is significantly lower than the peak of $64.3 billion in the summer of 2025 [3][5] - Derivatives market data shows a decline in open interest and a neutral overall funding rate, with a notable cooling of funding rate premiums, suggesting a reduction in speculative behavior [5] Market Outlook - In the context of converging risk sentiment and stabilizing market structure, Bitcoin is likely to continue a range-bound pattern in the short term [3][5] - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming key events, such as the forthcoming FOMC meeting, which may impact market dynamics [5]