Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals have shown significant price increases, with gold up over 50% and silver up over 70% year-to-date, leading the commodity market [2][4] - The average price of gold jewelry in Shanghai reached 1320 yuan per gram on December 8, a 65% increase from 799 yuan per gram at the beginning of the year [2] - Analysts expect continued demand for precious metals driven by central bank purchases and investment diversification, with gold prices potentially reaching $5000 per ounce by 2026 [4][5] Group 2: Silver Market - The silver market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with analysts predicting a price range of $50 to $60 per ounce by 2026 due to limited supply and high demand [6][10] - The gold-silver ratio has increased to a range of 85-90, indicating a strong performance for silver relative to gold [6] - Analysts suggest that silver will benefit from both industrial and financial demand, with expectations of continued price volatility [5][6] Group 3: Industrial Metals - Copper prices have reached historical highs, with LME copper futures hitting $11,771 per ton, a year-to-date increase of over 30% [7][8] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to structural supply shortages and increased demand driven by the anticipated AI era [7] - Forecasts indicate that copper prices may average $11,750 per ton in 2026, with potential peaks of $13,000 per ton in the second quarter [8][9] Group 4: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to face supply constraints, with forecasts indicating a supply deficit in 2026, supporting higher prices [10] - Analysts predict that LME aluminum prices could exceed $3200 per ton in 2026 due to limited domestic supply growth and resilient global demand [10] - The price dynamics between copper and aluminum are expected to maintain a ratio of 3-4, with aluminum prices projected to fluctuate throughout 2026 [10]
2026年大宗商品展望：全球秩序面临重构 有色金属和贵金属或延续涨势
Xin Hua She·2025-12-08 14:21