中国采购美豆步伐放缓

Core Viewpoint - China's soybean procurement pace has slowed down, with only 462,000 tons of U.S. soybeans confirmed for sale last Friday, bringing the total confirmed sales since the end of October to 2.7 million tons, which is 22.5% of the 12 million ton procurement target [2] Group 1: Soybean Procurement and Pricing - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that China is fulfilling its trade agreement obligations at the "right pace," with soybean purchases expected to be completed by February 2026, later than the previously stated deadline of December 2025 [2] - Analysts attribute the slow procurement to higher U.S. soybean prices compared to Brazilian supplies, with Argentine soybeans being the cheapest option available [2] - As of December 3, the prices for soybeans were reported as follows: Argentine soybeans at $433 per ton, U.S. Gulf soybeans at $446 per ton, and Brazilian soybeans at $451 per ton [2] Group 2: Future Projections for Soybean Imports - The U.S. agricultural attaché forecasts that China's soybean imports for the 2025/26 fiscal year will remain high at 106 million tons, a slight decrease of 1 million tons from the previous year, due to policies promoting import substitution and stabilizing oil supply [2][3] - China's soybean production for the 2025/26 fiscal year is expected to reach 19.9 million tons, reflecting government efforts to increase self-sufficiency in grain and oil crops [3] - Despite the increase in domestic production, the growth is insufficient to significantly reduce reliance on imports, which will continue to dominate supply [3] Group 3: Canola Seed Imports - The U.S. agricultural attaché predicts a significant decline in China's canola seed imports for the 2025/26 fiscal year, dropping from 4.5 million tons to 3.1 million tons, primarily due to anti-dumping duties imposed on Canadian canola seeds [3]