白金分析师广发郭磊前瞻2026：市场具备第二阶段牛市的有利条件

Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to become more balanced in 2026, with fixed asset investment in major provinces recovering and driving overall investment [10][11][12] - There is potential for improvement in consumer spending, particularly in the service sector, as emphasized in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [12][51] A-Share Market Analysis - The logic for the revaluation of A-shares remains valid, contingent on two conditions: first, that market pricing is rational and aligns with fundamentals; second, that economic and corporate earnings can sustain themselves [15][16] - Current market pricing is still within a reasonable range, with historical nominal GDP growth averaging around 5.7% and the composite growth rate of the entire A-share market at approximately 6% over the past six years [18][56] - If the Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to show positive signs, corporate earnings are likely to rebound, supporting the conditions for a second phase bull market [22][59] AI Market Perspective - AI is currently in the technology introduction phase and has not yet reached a bubble stage, although its pricing may partially reflect expectations [26][36] - The narrative surrounding AI is linked to broader themes of a weakening dollar and the restructuring of global supply chains, which could impact market dynamics [28][34][66] - The industry is expected to have significant future potential, but the current phase requires patience as it is still developing foundational applications [38][73] Global Financial Risks - There is a need to be cautious about the potential impact of yen fluctuations on global financial markets, as rising interest rate expectations could increase financing costs and lead to cross-market volatility [40][42][80] - The yen has historically been a key currency for carry trades, and changes in its valuation could affect asset valuations across various markets, including commodities and equities [41][78]