Liquid Cooling and 12-14-Month Build: Durable Bets for APLD Stock?

Core Insights - Applied Digital (APLD) is transitioning to AI data centers with a focus on long-duration leases and a finance-and-build model that is repeatable [1][9] - The company emphasizes water-efficient liquid cooling, speed to delivery, and secured supply as key design principles [1][2] - APLD is shifting from low-margin fit-out projects to recurring rental income as buildings reach lease revenue milestones [1][9] Business Strategy - APLD is targeting high-density AI workloads with direct-to-chip liquid cooling, achieving a design Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of 1.18 and near-zero water usage [2] - The company is leveraging over 200 days of natural cooling in the Dakotas to enhance efficiency and cooling capabilities [2] - APLD is compressing build timelines from approximately 24 months to 12-14 months, with around 700 MW currently under construction [5][6] Lease Agreements - The Ellendale (Polaris Forge 1) project has expanded to a fully leased 400 MW with CoreWeave, generating approximately $11 billion in contracted lease revenues over 15 years [3] - APLD signed a lease for 200 MW at Polaris Forge 2 with an investment-grade hyperscaler, valued at about $5 billion over 15 years, with potential for an additional 800 MW [4] Financial Performance - APLD shares have increased by 227.9% over the past 12 months, outperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector and competitors like Riot Platforms and Equinix [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues is projected at $280.9 million, indicating a 27% growth from fiscal 2025 [8] Competitive Landscape - The competition is intensifying as Riot Platforms expands into high-performance computing, targeting over 1 GW for AI workloads [10] - Equinix operates a global network of over 260 data centers, increasing competition for AI-ready capacity and timelines [10]