【市场探“涨”】近十年新高！硫磺现货涨势难休？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in chemical and industrial product prices, particularly sulfur, is driven by tight overseas supply and high international prices, raising questions about the sustainability of this price increase and its impact on the industry [2][5]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of December 5, the price of granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port reached 4,115 yuan/ton, marking a nearly ten-year high [3]. - The sulfur market is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation trend in the short term, with procurement activities slowing down among end-users and traders due to the high prices [3][5]. - The international sulfur market is experiencing upward pressure, with Qatar and Kuwait announcing December contract prices at FOB 495 USD/ton, a significant increase of 95 USD/ton from the previous month [5]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Dependency - China's sulfur import dependency exceeds 40%, with annual imports consistently above 8 million tons [6]. - The supply of sulfur is expected to decrease by 1 million tons by Q4 2025 due to reduced exports from Russia, which has shifted from a net exporter to a net importer of sulfur [5][6]. - The global energy transition is limiting the growth of new sulfur production capacity, as traditional oil and gas demand declines [6]. Group 3: Impact on Related Industries - The rising sulfur prices are affecting multiple industries, including phosphate fertilizers, nylon, titanium dioxide, and metal smelting [8][9]. - The price of sulfuric acid has increased by approximately 50%, with current prices ranging from 1,080 to 1,210 yuan/ton [9]. - Phosphate fertilizer producers are facing significant pressure, with production rates dropping to 53.95% and losses exceeding 600 yuan/ton [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sulfur market is anticipated to exhibit a volatile upward trend due to limited supply growth and steady demand release [11]. - The demand for sulfur is expected to increase, particularly from the phosphate fertilizer sector and the burgeoning nickel-cobalt metallurgy industry in Indonesia [12]. - Analysts predict that the price of sulfur may remain high through early 2026, supported by recovering production in the phosphate fertilizer industry and seasonal demand [11][12].