Your money in 2026: What to expect in banking, mortgages, credit cards, and more

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy demonstrated resilience in 2025 with moderated inflation, stabilized borrowing costs, strong consumer spending, and steady stock market gains as it transitions into 2026 [1] - A new policy landscape, evolving Federal Reserve decisions, and ongoing tariff impacts are expected to influence the economic outlook for 2026 [1] Mortgages - Mortgage interest rates are predicted to decrease gradually in 2026, with the 30-year fixed rate expected to remain above 6%, except for a forecasted drop to 5.9% in Q4 2026 [2] - Home construction is increasing, leading to an expected 8.9% rise in home inventory and a 1% decrease in rent prices in 2026 [3][5] Housing Market - While some areas are seeing a decline in home prices, overall housing prices are expected to increase in most U.S. regions in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than during the COVID-19 pandemic [4] - The combination of more inventory and lower sales prices may benefit homebuyers in 2026, allowing potential buyers to save for down payments while rents decline [5] Investment Landscape - Investors are questioning the substantial investments in AI infrastructure as the U.S. economy faces pressures from rising prices and unemployment, but declining interest rates could support corporate earnings and higher gold prices [6] - The S&P 500 is expected to yield modest returns in 2026, with an average annual return of about 7% and earnings growth projected to exceed 12% [7] - Small- and mid-cap stocks may outperform in 2026, particularly in technology and finance sectors, driven by earnings and innovation [10] Gold Market - Gold's value increased over 50% in 2025, and this upward trend is expected to continue into 2026, with projections reaching $5,000 per ounce by the end of the year [11] Banking Sector - A shift towards digital-first banking is anticipated in 2026, with increased competition in AI and fintech reshaping customer service [13] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement further rate cuts, potentially lowering interest rates on credit, loans, and deposit accounts [15] Consumer Credit and Loans - Consumer credit and household debt reached record levels in 2025, with total debt balances increasing by $4.44 trillion since the end of 2019 [18] - The personal loan market expanded significantly, with unsecured personal loan balances reaching a record $269 billion in 2025, a trend expected to continue into 2026 [19] Student Loans - The return to repayment of federal student loans in 2025 caused a spike in delinquencies, and new policies in 2026 will introduce lower borrowing caps and fewer repayment plans, impacting future borrowers [21][22][23] Insurance Industry - Auto insurance rates may decline for qualified drivers in 2026 due to safer car technology, while homeowners insurance premiums are expected to rise by 16% [24][26] - The use of AI in insurance underwriting is predicted to expand, enhancing risk assessment and claims processing [27]