CRC Builds a Steadier Cash Flow Base as Policy Tailwinds Grow

Core Insights - California Resources Corporation (CRC) enters 2026 with a simplified near-term strategy and clearer long-term goals, supported by strengthened liquidity, a higher dividend, and disciplined capital management [1][10] Short-Term Setup - CRC's shares hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) with a VGM Score of A, indicating expectations for in-line performance in the near term while being attractive on value and momentum factors [2] Regulatory Environment - Recent California policy changes, including SB 237 and SB 614, facilitate the approval of new production permits and CO2 transportation through pipelines, providing CRC with a clearer path for future drilling and carbon storage initiatives [3][10] Financial Performance - In the third quarter, CRC's net production averaged 137 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d), with approximately 78% being oil. Adjusted EBITDAX was around $338 million, and free cash flow was approximately $188 million [4][10] - Liquidity exceeded $1.1 billion, including $180 million in cash, and the quarterly dividend was increased by 5%, maintaining a conservative credit profile [5][10] Capital Management - Management targets a corporate base decline of 8–13% for 2026, with capital spending projected at $280–$300 million, reflecting a disciplined, cash-flow-first approach [6][10] - The combination of a moderated decline rate, hedging, and cost control supports free cash flow durability while allowing for shareholder returns [6] Carbon Capture Initiatives - CRC's first carbon capture and storage (CCS) injection at Elk Hills is planned for early 2026, pending final approvals, with construction completion expected by the end of 2025 [7][10] - The approval of CO2 pipelines under SB 614 is crucial for connecting future capture sites to storage locations, and CRC has a memorandum of understanding with Capital Power for potential "power-to-CCS" projects [8] Investment Outlook - The Zacks Rank 3 suggests in-line performance over the next one to three months, with a focus on near-term execution on permits, the timing of the first injection, and stabilizing production against a lower base-decline framework [11] - Peers such as Matador Resources and Murphy Oil are noted for comparison, providing insights into capital returns and relative value within the sector [12] Conclusion - CRC's setup for 2026 is characterized by a stronger liquidity position, measured capital expenditures, and improving policy support, with upcoming CCS milestones and moderated base declines contributing to a balanced near-term outlook and medium-term diversification potential [13]