Broadcom Stock Rides Market Momentum As Marvell Faces Microsoft, Amazon Setbacks

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape in the custom-chip market has shifted, with Broadcom gaining momentum as Microsoft explores partnerships for custom AI chip designs, while Marvell faces challenges in retaining key cloud contracts [1]. Group 1: Marvell's Challenges - Marvell's stock experienced a significant decline of about 10% following reports that Microsoft may transfer its custom-chip work to Broadcom, which threatens Marvell's hyperscaler strategy [2]. - Analyst Cody Acree downgraded Marvell's stock to Hold, indicating that the company has likely lost Amazon's Tranium 3 and 4 chip programs to competitor Alchip, which reflects a slowing momentum rather than a temporary setback [3]. - Despite Marvell's assertion that it will not face a revenue drop next year, analysts suggest this may be due to ongoing production of Tranium 2 chips rather than a successful transition to newer models [4]. Group 2: Broadcom's Position - Broadcom is enhancing its influence in the custom ASIC and networking silicon markets, with discussions with Microsoft reinforcing its established relationships in the industry [5]. - If Broadcom secures Microsoft's business, it would indicate a significant shift in supplier confidence, especially as cloud companies reassess vendor concentration risks [5]. - Broadcom's strategic positioning is further highlighted by its quiet expansion, contrasting with Marvell's competitive pressures, as evidenced by Marvell's fee concessions to attract future chip projects from Meta Platforms [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market is currently more focused on contract retention rather than innovation stories, which may impact Marvell's future prospects despite its acquisition of Celestial AI [7]. - Investors are closely monitoring whether Marvell's recent difficulties are a temporary issue or indicative of deeper challenges within the company [7].