【头条评论】 警惕日元加息这头“灰犀牛”

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has ignited market expectations for interest rate hikes, indicating that the central bank will assess the pros and cons of raising rates at the upcoming policy meeting on December 19, with an 80% market expectation for a rate hike by year-end [1] Group 1: Economic Context - Japan has maintained near-zero or negative interest rates since 1990 to stimulate the economy, leading to the yen being the cheapest financing currency globally, which has facilitated "carry trades" [1][2] - The "Watanabe-san" group, representing Japanese housewives, has been a significant player in the retail forex market, accounting for nearly one-third of trading volume, utilizing low yen rates for arbitrage [2] Group 2: Market Implications - The potential for interest rate hikes is driven by domestic pressures such as rising import costs due to yen depreciation and a government debt exceeding 230% of GDP, alongside international pressures from the U.S. to adjust monetary policy [3] - An increase in borrowing costs for yen will lead to a sell-off of overseas assets by investors to repay yen-denominated debts, causing a sudden contraction in global liquidity and a drop in asset prices [3][4] Group 3: Risk Indicators - The reversal of yen carry trades is seen as a bellwether for changes in global market risk appetite, with high-value and high-leverage assets, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, facing significant sell-offs [4]