2026年大类资产配置展望：宽松延续、AI渗透与大国博弈长期化

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global economic environment is expected to remain accommodative, with a focus on corporate profitability driving equity markets, while investors should be cautious of risks amid market volatility [1][2]. Macroeconomic Outlook - China's economy is projected to maintain stable growth in 2026, with moderate inflation and a focus on industrial transformation and balancing development with security [1]. - The U.S. economy is anticipated to achieve a "soft landing," with manageable short-term inflation pressures, while the AI technology revolution continues to be a core driver across economic cycles [2]. Equity Market Insights - The A-share market is entering a phase where growth will depend more on actual corporate earnings rather than valuation expansion, following a valuation recovery in 2025 [2]. - Investment strategies should focus on four main paths: growth sectors with sustained momentum, globally competitive leading companies, areas with improved supply-demand dynamics, and new opportunities from the industrialization of frontier technologies [2]. Fixed Income Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern in 2026, supported by a loose funding environment and potential resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank [3]. - Credit bonds remain attractive due to stable institutional demand, with a recommended strategy of focusing on medium to short-duration bonds with favorable yields [3]. Alternative Assets - Gold is projected to continue its bull market in 2026, supported by expanding U.S. fiscal deficits, a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, and ongoing central bank purchases [4]. - The commodity market is expected to trend upwards, with significant opportunities in precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products due to changing supply dynamics and favorable liquidity conditions [5]. Quantitative Strategies - The environment for excess returns in stock quantitative strategies is expected to be favorable, with a significant portion of private equity funds now allocated to quantitative strategies [5]. - Market-neutral products are anticipated to provide stable alpha returns by effectively isolating systemic risks in a low-interest-rate environment [5].