Bitcoin Market Echoes Early 2022 as Onchain Stress Mounts: Glassnode

Market Overview - Glassnode's latest report indicates that current market conditions resemble the early stages of the 2022 bear market, also referred to as crypto winter [1] Buyer Behavior - The elevated risk of top buyer capitulation is highlighted, with the spot price falling below the 0.75 quantile, currently trading near $96,100, putting over 25% of BTC supply underwater, similar to the onset of the 2022 bear market [2] - The total supply in loss has reached 7.1 million bitcoin, at the high end of the 5 million to 7 million range observed in early 2022 [3] Capital Flows - Despite market pressures, capital continues to flow into bitcoin, with a realized cap net change of approximately $8.69 billion per month, significantly lower than the summer peak of $64.3 billion per month [3] Investor Sentiment - Off-chain trends indicate a softening investor sentiment, with ETF demand weakening, as IBIT experiences its longest negative streak since January 2024, totaling over $2.7 billion in outflows over the last five weeks [4] - Spot market activity is deteriorating, with cumulative volume delta (CVD) trending negatively, particularly on Binance, while the Coinbase premium is expected to roll over again after a brief positive period [5] Derivatives Market - Derivatives data shows a decline in risk appetite, with open interest falling from November into December, indicating reduced willingness to take on risk following the October 10 liquidation flash crash [6] - Perpetual funding rates are mostly neutral, with occasional negative prints, suggesting a more balanced and less speculative trading environment [6] Options Market - Traders are not positioning for a strong breakout ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, with a cautious stance observed in the options market where upside is being sold rather than pursued [7] - Earlier in the week, put buying was dominant as bitcoin approached $80,000, but as prices stabilized, flows shifted towards call activity as investor fears subsided [7]