原油：成品油大跌拖累油价走低 市场关注俄罗斯供应前景

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have experienced their largest decline in nearly three weeks, driven by traders' focus on India's purchase of Russian crude oil and a significant drop in the refined oil market, which has negatively impacted the entire energy sector [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - WTI crude oil futures fell by 2%, settling at approximately $58.88 per barrel [2][5]. - February Brent crude oil dropped by 2%, closing at $62.49 per barrel [3][7]. - The decline in oil prices is also attributed to a downturn in the U.S. stock market [5]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Despite facing severe sanctions due to the conflict in Ukraine, Russian President Putin has committed to maintaining uninterrupted oil supplies to India [5]. - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, including Vivek Dhar, express concerns that fears of oversupply will materialize, particularly as Russian crude and refined oil potentially circumvent existing sanctions, predicting Brent crude could fall to $60 per barrel by 2026 [5]. Group 3: Refined Oil Market - Gasoline futures fell by 2%, previously reaching the lowest levels since May 2021 [5]. - Diesel prices also weakened, contributing to the overall decline in the energy commodities sector [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The ongoing potential for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia remains a focal point for the market, with U.S. President Trump expressing disappointment in Ukrainian President Zelensky's handling of the proposed peace agreement [5]. - Currently, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have remained below the 100-day moving average for nearly the longest period in a year, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market ahead of anticipated oversupply [5].