证券时报头条评论：警惕日元加息这头“灰犀牛”

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike has increased significantly, with market expectations rising to over 80% for a rate increase by the end of the year, which could impact global capital flows [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Bank of Japan has maintained near-zero or negative interest rates since 1990 to stimulate the economy, leading to the yen being the cheapest financing currency globally [1][2]. - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar has raised import costs and contributed to persistent imported inflation, while Japan's government debt exceeds 230% of GDP [3]. Group 2: Impact on Investors - The "Watanabe-san" group, representing Japanese housewives, has utilized low yen interest rates for carry trades, significantly influencing Japan's retail forex market [2]. - Major international investors, including Warren Buffett, have also leveraged low yen rates to invest in Japanese stocks, contributing to the rise of the Nikkei 225 index and injecting liquidity into global markets [2]. Group 3: Risks of Rate Hike - An increase in yen interest rates would raise borrowing costs and create pressure on investors, potentially leading to a sell-off of overseas assets to repay yen-denominated debts [2][3]. - The reversal of carry trades could trigger a significant contraction in global liquidity, impacting high-valuation assets such as U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies [3][4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The potential reversal of yen carry trades serves as a barometer for changes in global market risk appetite, with heightened investor aversion affecting high-leverage assets [4]. - The situation underscores the global financial system's reliance on Japan's low interest rate policy and highlights vulnerabilities in the post-pandemic economic structure [4].