美联储年终大戏即将上演 一文解密四大看点

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates for the third consecutive time due to alarming signals from the U.S. labor market, with significant attention on the potential for dissenting votes during the meeting and the implications for future monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making Dynamics - Disagreements among Federal Reserve policymakers have become apparent since summer, with inflation and employment growth conflicting with the dual mandate of 2% inflation and full employment [2]. - The New York Fed President, John Williams, indicated that the U.S. could lower rates without jeopardizing inflation targets, suggesting room for further adjustments to the federal funds rate [2]. - Kansas City Fed President, Esther George, expressed concerns about high inflation and the risks of further rate cuts, while Boston Fed President, Susan Collins, showed hesitation towards additional cuts, citing the current policy as appropriate [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Employment Trends - The latest economic outlook suggests moderate growth for the U.S. economy in 2026, with job creation expected to remain weak and inflation risks persisting [5]. - The median forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2026 is 2%, an increase from previous estimates, supported by stronger consumer spending and business investment [5]. - Inflation is projected to slightly decrease to 2.6% in 2026, with job growth remaining weak and the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.5% [6]. Group 3: Interest Rate Predictions and Market Reactions - Market expectations indicate a potential for approximately 52 basis points of rate cuts by 2026, with predictions of two rate cuts occurring in the first three quarters of the year [9]. - Institutions like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America anticipate a 25 basis point cut in December, aligning with a more dovish outlook from Fed officials [9]. - The Fed's decision-making may be influenced by upcoming leadership changes, with a potential shift in policy direction depending on new appointments [9]. Group 4: Asset and Balance Sheet Management - The future trajectory of the Fed's balance sheet is considered as crucial as interest rate decisions, especially in light of recent pressures in the overnight funding market [12]. - The Fed has halted its balance sheet reduction process to avoid a repeat of past market crises, indicating a need for careful liquidity management [12]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed may initiate Treasury purchases to manage reserves, with expectations of monthly purchases starting in early 2024 [13].