钴市迎 “强震”！刚果（金）新规再添变数

Core Viewpoint - The new cobalt export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world's largest cobalt supplier, are causing widespread concern in the global mining and lithium battery industries due to increased uncertainty in the already strained cobalt supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The DRC has replaced its export ban with a quota system since October, introducing a temporary 10% royalty fee on exports, which has added complexity to the export process [1]. - There is confusion among industry players regarding the calculation basis for the pre-paid 10% royalty fee, particularly whether it will be deducted from the last export transaction amount before the February export ban [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The frequent adjustments to export rules in the DRC have created significant uncertainty, which is viewed as a major risk factor for the market [2]. - Cobalt prices have shown a dramatic increase, rising from a low of $10 per pound in February to $24 per pound (approximately $52,910 per ton) by December 8, marking a 140% increase over six months [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The DRC accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, with an expected output of 220,000 tons in 2024, meaning any fluctuations in its export processes will directly impact the global market [2]. - The ongoing supply uncertainty may suppress demand as battery manufacturers may accelerate the development of low-cobalt or cobalt-free technologies, potentially eroding traditional cobalt demand in the long term [3]. Group 4: Industry Response - Global mining companies are closely monitoring the DRC's regulatory interpretations, with some halting new order negotiations [3]. - If policy details remain unclear in the short term, cobalt prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels, prompting lithium battery supply chain companies to diversify their supply sources to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single supplier [3].