万联证券：AI技术创新与供需格局变化 共同驱动存储景气周期

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is expected to enter a new prosperity cycle driven by AI, with increasing demand for servers and storage due to accelerated capital expenditure from cloud vendors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Size and Growth - The global storage market is projected to reach a historical high in Q3 2025, with DRAM market size increasing by 24.7% to $40.037 billion and NAND market size growing by 16.8% to $18.422 billion [2]. - The demand for storage chips is anticipated to be stronger due to AI-driven growth, accelerated technology iterations, and limited new supply capacity in the short term, leading to sustained price increases in the storage industry [2]. Group 2: Cloud Vendor Capital Expenditure - Major global cloud service providers have significantly increased capital investments since 2025 to meet the strong demand for AI data centers and cloud computing, with a projected annual growth rate of 65% in capital expenditure [3]. - By 2026, total capital expenditure from these cloud vendors is expected to exceed $600 billion, with a 40% annual growth rate, which will drive demand for AI servers and upstream storage supply chains [3]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - High-end DRAM markets are being led by HBM and DDR5 technologies, with HBM configurations becoming increasingly common in AI acceleration cards, driving steady growth in the HBM market [4]. - The NAND market is seeing advancements in QLC NAND technology, which balances high capacity, low power consumption, and high performance, leading to increased penetration of QLC SSDs in enterprise storage [4]. Group 4: Domestic Market Opportunities - The global storage market is highly concentrated, with major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron dominating the landscape [5]. - Domestic DRAM leader Changxin Storage has achieved breakthroughs in DDR5/LPDDR5X technology, while domestic NAND Flash leader Yangtze Memory Technologies has made significant advancements in QLC and TLC products, positioning them to benefit from the new prosperity cycle [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are identified in storage manufacturers due to strong demand driven by AI and supply-side capacity adjustments, which may lead to improved profitability [6]. - Domestic storage module manufacturers are expected to see improved profitability due to rising gross margins and increased inventory levels, alongside recovering downstream demand [6]. - Upstream equipment suppliers are likely to benefit from increased capital expenditure by storage manufacturers, suggesting a focus on leading firms in the equipment sector [6].