公募基金业薪酬风暴要来了？谁站在红线边缘？

Core Viewpoint - The new performance assessment guidelines for fund management companies signify a major reform in the public fund industry, linking fund managers' compensation directly to the actual returns for investors, thereby emphasizing performance over mere management fees [1][2][31]. Group 1: Key Points of Compensation Reform - The core principle of the new guidelines is to establish a performance assessment system centered on fund investment returns, with a significant weight on long-term performance metrics [33]. - Fund managers of actively managed equity funds will face a 30% salary reduction if their performance lags the benchmark by more than 10% and the fund incurs losses over the past three years [2][32]. - The guidelines introduce quantifiable and rigid constraints to create a transparent incentive mechanism, aiming for long-term alignment of interests between fund managers and investors [2][32]. Group 2: Impact and Data Analysis - As of December 5, nearly 38.43% of 3,757 actively managed equity funds have underperformed their benchmarks by over 10% in the last three years, indicating significant challenges for fund managers [34]. - Approximately 996 fund managers are affected, managing over 1.1 trillion yuan in assets, with specific examples of funds like Guotou Ruijin's performance showing a cumulative return of -26.12%, lagging the benchmark by over 45 percentage points [35][40]. - Historical data from 2015 to 2024 shows that only 45 out of a large sample of equity funds managed to consistently outperform the benchmark by 10% over three years, suggesting that over 90% of fund managers may face salary reductions during their careers [39]. Group 3: Characteristics of Fund Managers at Risk - Fund managers at risk of salary reductions often exhibit extreme style dependence, focusing heavily on specific sectors like consumption or technology, which can lead to significant underperformance during market downturns [41][42]. - Rapid asset growth during peak performance periods has constrained the flexibility of these managers, making it difficult to adjust portfolios effectively in declining markets [43][44]. - The aggressive strategies employed by these managers conflict with the new guidelines that encourage closer tracking of benchmarks and controlled excess returns [46]. Group 4: Future Implications for Fund Managers - The new regulations are expected to shift fund managers' focus from seeking high returns to managing risks, potentially leading to a more conservative investment approach [52]. - The stringent accountability measures may result in a significant reduction in the number of top-performing fund managers remaining in the public fund sector, as many may transition to private equity or specialized accounts for better compensation opportunities [56][58]. - The industry may see an increase in trend-following strategies, which could exacerbate market volatility and lead to crowded trades, while less popular assets may receive even less attention [55].