金鹰基金梁梓颖：春季躁动有望提前 重点关注三条主线

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, causing a rise in Japanese bond yields and concerns over the reversal of carry trades, leading to adjustments in global markets [1][5] - The U.S. "small non-farm" payrolls report showed a surprising decline of 32,000 jobs in November, far below the expected increase of 10,000, which heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][5] - As of December 6, the market is pricing in an 86.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][5] Group 2 - In China, the manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded in November but remained below the expansion threshold, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.2% (up 0.2 percentage points month-on-month) and the non-manufacturing PMI at 49.5% (down 0.6 percentage points month-on-month) [1][6] - The production index and new orders index for November were 50.0% (up 0.3 percentage points month-on-month) and 49.2% (up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month), respectively, indicating improvements in both production and demand [6] - The high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing PMIs showed varying degrees of decline, while the PMI for high-energy-consuming industries rebounded from low levels [6] Group 3 - Despite a cautious market sentiment ahead of significant macroeconomic events in mid-December, the A-share market experienced a slight increase, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and adjustments in insurance company risk factors [2][6] - Global commodity markets continued to rise, with non-ferrous metals leading the gains [2][6] - The overall news sentiment was positive, with potential measures to expand broker capital and adjust insurance company investment risk factors expected to bring considerable incremental funds to the market [2][6] Group 4 - From a mid-term perspective, the upward trend of the index remains intact, with the possibility of an early spring rally starting in January or February due to the short interval between the Lunar New Year and the National People's Congress [2][6] - Investment recommendations include focusing on three areas: high-dividend assets such as banks and coal, growth sectors like computing and electricity with mid-term fundamentals, and flexible opportunities in themes like commercial aerospace and robotics [2][7]