广发证券：全球新基建周期启航 铜价中枢逐步提升

Core Viewpoint - The demand for copper is expected to remain strong due to its extensive applications in various industries, with a particular boost from the growth in new energy and AI sectors, leading to a long-term increase in global electricity demand [1] Group 1: Demand Drivers - The demand outlook for copper is promising, with significant contributions expected from the electric vehicle (EV) sector, AI industry, and power grid infrastructure [2] - The electric vehicle sector is projected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% in copper usage from 2025 to 2030 due to increased electrification [2] - The demand for copper in AI training and services is anticipated to grow, with an expected addition of 206,000 tons of copper demand from data centers between 2025 and 2030 [3] - The power infrastructure cycle, driven by the need to update aging power grid systems and the influence of AI on power resource construction, will lead to stable long-term growth in copper demand [4] Group 2: Regional Insights - In China, stable domestic demand and the development of new productive forces are expected to drive copper demand growth [5] - In the United States, the updating and expansion of the power grid are seen as foundational for manufacturing resurgence and AI development, leading to a projected recovery in copper demand [6] - In the European Union, the increasing share of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, along with post-war reconstruction efforts, will drive copper demand growth [7] - Investments in countries like India and Southeast Asia are also expected to contribute to the increase in copper demand [8] Group 3: Resilience Factors - The impact of tariffs is expected to ease after May 2025, supporting a resilient copper demand outlook [9] - Energy demand is a key factor ensuring the certainty of copper demand, with energy-related infrastructure projects serving as important countermeasures against economic downturns [9] - Over 50% of copper's end demand comes from the energy sector, which has strong financial backing and large-scale investments, making it less likely for projects to halt once initiated [9] - The trend of de-globalization is reducing the free flow of copper, making supply and demand more regionally focused, while supply chain instability poses challenges for self-sufficiency [9]